What the Past can teach us about the future

The following Questions help us to  determine if the past is representative for the future.

  1. Observation: Will the past behaviour continue? How long can it possibly continue?
  2. Explanation: The past can tell us why something happend.
  3. Predictability: From the past we can learn how probable an event really is, how possible is that it will happen again?
  4. Continuation and Change:  What is required to make the past/ present record continue? What forces can change it or cause what we don’t want to happen and is it likely?
  5. Certainty and Consequences: How certain am I? And what the consequences of being right/ wrong?

The past can teach us a lot about the future when we ask the right questions and look at the bigger picture.

“Study the past if you would divine the future” – Confucius