The following Questions help us to determine if the past is representative for the future.
- Observation: Will the past behaviour continue? How long can it possibly continue?
- Explanation: The past can tell us why something happend.
- Predictability: From the past we can learn how probable an event really is, how possible is that it will happen again?
- Continuation and Change: What is required to make the past/ present record continue? What forces can change it or cause what we don’t want to happen and is it likely?
- Certainty and Consequences: How certain am I? And what the consequences of being right/ wrong?
The past can teach us a lot about the future when we ask the right questions and look at the bigger picture.
“Study the past if you would divine the future” – Confucius