Suvivorship Bias

We for the most part only the Winners but not the much greater amount of losers who did not win. 

This is called survivorship Bias, the tendency to only see the survivors but not the ones that failed. What follows this bias is a the believe that success comes easy or is a result of pure talent. We fail to see all the people who tried but did not succeed, often with a similar amount of talent.

We see someone successful and start to believe that we could do it too since he did it, but what does not cross our mind are those thousands and thousand wo didn’t make it.

The only read antidote against this fallacy is to look at real evidence. Where we can clearly see how many people tried and failed. Then we get the point that for each Zuckerberg there are millions of promising entrepreneurs who failed.

The road to success is littered with failures from which we can learn a lot, but we first have to acknowledge that it is almost never as easy or as forseeable as it seems. +

We also tend to overestimate our ability which makes us believe in our superiority over others. Before we make such a claim we have to look for factual evidence for why we are special and an exception to the rule. Look at your past how right your  were at estimating your true ability in the face of a challenge. The best way to actually know our abilities is by getting honest feedback from an other person, then we have to take that critic to heart.

Never forget: In the media we only see the ones that made it, but not the ones that failed miserably. Keep in mind and look for real evidence before you estimate your ability to do the same.